The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to shape various sectors, with the restaurant industry feeling the effects perhaps more profoundly than most. As doors shuttered and dining rooms stood empty, nearly 100,000 establishments across the United States were forced to close during the initial six months of the pandemic. This loss represents a staggering 1 in 6 restaurants, leading to an irrevocable transformation within the industry. Having grown up as the child of restaurant owners in Los Angeles, I witnessed firsthand the struggles and stress that small business proprietors faced during this tumultuous period. This article explores the significant changes in labor dynamics and sales within the restaurant sector from 2019 to 2023, drawing insights from data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In 2019, the restaurant industry employed approximately 13.8 million workers in the U.S., a number that fell by 16% during 2020 as the pandemic wreaked havoc on employment figures. By 2023, the workforce had rebounded to 13.6 million employees, which is noteworthy considering the broader economic landscape. Despite returning to near pre-pandemic employment levels, the composition of the workforce underwent significant adjustments. The BLS categorizes restaurant workers into four key areas: Supervisors, Cooks and Food Preparation, Food and Beverage Serving, and Other. Of these roles, Serving positions comprised more than half of the workforce prior to the pandemic.
The changes become even more pronounced when comparing 2019 to the present. There has been a notable increase in Supervisors and Cooks, while the number of Serving staff has decreased—especially in the waitstaff category. The pandemic’s impact on full-service dining establishments was disproportionately severe, leading to the significant drop in waitstaff roles. Interestingly, bartenders were the only segment within Serving roles to see a rise in employment, perhaps due to a resurgence in casual dining experiences.
Alongside shifts in employment, restaurant sales figures tell a tale of resilience and adaptation. Before the pandemic, restaurant output reached a peak of $767 billion in 2019. However, the ensuing drop in 2020—down to $663 billion—posed challenges. It wasn’t until 2022 that restaurants began to recover sales to pre-pandemic levels. Remarkably, projections for 2023 indicate that total restaurant sales could reach an unprecedented $981 billion, suggesting that the industry has not only bounced back but has also found ways to thrive in this new environment.
The shift in consumer spending habits has played a central role in this resurgence. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the share of consumer spending allocated to Food-Away-From-Home reached an all-time high of over 58% in 2023. This increase signifies a broader cultural shift towards dining out, suggesting that the experiences offered by restaurants have regained their appeal.
One of the most significant indicators of the restaurant industry’s adaptation is the increase in productivity. Although the workforce size remained relatively stable from 2019 to 2023, the output per employee rose substantially—from $55,700 to $72,200, showcasing a boost in efficiency. This increase can be attributed in part to the acceleration of digital ordering and delivery services, which gained momentum during the pandemic. Reports indicate that digital carry-out orders skyrocketed by 115% from 2020 to 2023, highlighting a seismic shift in consumer behavior.
Furthermore, innovations such as self-ordering kiosks have become more prevalent in restaurants, enabling a streamlined ordering process. By shifting certain responsibilities away from servers to technological solutions, restaurants could allocate their labor resources to other critical areas, particularly in kitchen operations.
As the industry progresses, restaurants are grappling with rising wages and food costs, leading to a pressing need for increased operational efficiency. Automation in kitchens emerges as a plausible solution. Despite numerous attempts to introduce robotic systems in commercial kitchens—such as Zume Pizza’s failed but ambitious project—interest in technology remains potent. Other companies, including Chipotle and Sweetgreen, are piloting robotic solutions, signaling a gradual but significant movement towards automation.
While automation traditionally raises concerns related to job displacement, the pandemic has illuminated a shift in job roles rather than outright elimination. As food ordering becomes increasingly automated, it may very well create opportunities for workers to transition into new roles that harness their skills more effectively. Over time, the integration of kitchen automation could lead to more stable pricing in the food service sector, balancing the costs of dining out with home-prepared meals.
The restaurant industry stands at a crossroads, confronted with both challenges and opportunities. The post-COVID landscape is reshaped by changing consumer preferences, heightened productivity, and the potential for technological innovation. This transition could yield a restaurant experience that resonates with patrons while empowering employees. As we look to the future, the resilience of the restaurant industry and its capacity for growth will largely depend on its ability to innovate and adapt to a new reality.
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