Could your holiday flight be cancelled due to lack of fuel – and will you have to pay extra?

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With each day that passes since the start of war between the US, Israel and Iran, the impact on people in Britain increases.

Could your holiday flight be cancelled due to lack of fuel? That’s the question increasingly many people are asking after reports that the final tanker carrying jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK will arrive imminently.

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, has warned of “the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June” unless the war ends quickly.

From the start of April, Pakistan has told foreign pilots to arrive with as much fuel as possible for their return journey. The announcement comes as some Asian countries are grounding flights and European airlines are making plans to deal with shortages. So what is possible, what is probable and what are your rights? These are the key questions and answers.

“The final tanker carrying jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK” sounds ominous. How worried should we be?

Knowing that there are normally half a dozen tankers en route from the Gulf region to the UK with jet fuel, but the last one is nearing port, sounds worrying. But the airlines, the airport and the government all point to range of other supplies – including the US, Nigeria and the Netherlands.

But talking to the big UK and Irish airlines, they are confident that supplies are sufficient to cover the busy Easter spell and the rest of April. Beyond that, visibility is more difficult.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told The Independent: “Jet fuel shipments are continuing to arrive in the UK. The UK receives imports of jet fuel from India, US and the Netherlands as well as smaller amounts from a range of other countries.”

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary told Sky News: “The fuel companies are happy there won’t be disruption till early May.

“But if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and obviously we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated.

“If the war finishes by April and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, then there is almost no risk to supply. If the war continues, and the disruption to supply continues, we think there is a reasonable risk of some low level – maybe 10 to 25 per cent of our supplies – might be at risk through May and June.”

What’s happening further afield?

The picture is more concerning in parts of Asia, which are largely dependent on supplies of aviation fuel from the Gulf.

Airlines in Vietnam and the Philippines are cancelling some domestic and international flights.

Were I on a backpacking trip relying on budget airlines in South East Asia, I would keep a close eye on flight bookings.

Pakistan has just put out a Notice to Air Missions (“Notam”) saying: “Due to disruption in supply chain of jet fuel, as a precautionary measure airlines are advised to carry maximum fuel from abroad and minimise uplift of jet fuel from Pakistan.”

What about British or European airlines flying from cities in Asia?

The Pakistan warning is significant. There is no problem with bringing in fuel on the 90-minute hop from Dubai to Karachi. This is a practice known as “tankering”. But an 11-hour flight from Heathrow to Islamabad is different. Individual airports may run short of fuel. Were this to happen – as it already is in Cuba due to the US blockade – airlines continue to fly, but typically they will stop off somewhere else to take on more fuel.

Oddly at the same time as fuel is getting scarce, European airlines including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are stepping up flights to Asia, to cash in on the parlous state of the Gulf airlines.

We’ve also heard of American and Scandinavian airlines cancelling flights?

Yes, but that is much more of a financial issue. Airlines that are not locked into low fuel prices are seeing their costs rise very steeply. So United of the US and SAS, the Scandinavian airline, have announced the cancellation of thousands of flights between them – but they are departures that have switched from marginally profitable to loss-making due to the rising price of aviation fuel.

Could we even face surcharges?

All the big airlines operating from the UK – British Airways, easyJet, Jet2, Ryanair and Virgin Atlantic – have locked into lower fuel prices. None of the airlines intends to surcharge existing passengers.

There is no convention of asking people who have paid in full for their flights to pay more. However, that’s not the case for package holidays.

“Hedging” the price of fuel comes at a cost and plenty of firms choose not to lock into low fares. They are therefore exposed to the full weight of the approximate doubling of the oil price. Under the Package Travel Regulations, travel firms are allowed to ask for more money if “the price of the carriage of passengers resulting from the cost of fuel” has risen. There is no upper limit to the amount that the travel firm can demand. But if the proposed surcharge is eight per cent or more, then you have the right to get your money back.

Many surcharges turn out to be eight per cent, representing an extra £80 on a £1,000 holiday.

Will we be paying more for our flights?

Longer term, higher fares are likely. Kenton Jarvis, chief executive of easyJet, told The Independent: “The industry has no choice. It’s a low-margin, highly competitive sector. We make about £7 per seat. If fuel goes up £10, you have to respond.”

Is there such a thing as panic buying for flights and holidays – and would you advise it?

I never advise anybody to panic. There is, though, an argument for committing to the flights you will take over the coming months in the knowledge that you will get strong consumer protection. For example I have just bought a ticket for a princely £40 to Cyprus in May, and one coming back from Georgia later the same month.

I fully expect those flights to go ahead, but should the airline cancel I know that under air passenger rights rules, the carrier has to provide an alternative departure for me at no extra cost.

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