The travel industry is witnessing a significant shift as nearly one in five Americans expresses their intention to reduce their travel plans in 2024, primarily due to rising costs. However, amidst this concern, many travelers are finding ways to save money without compromising on the quality of their trips. According to Intrepid Travel’s 2024 Outlook Survey, around 70% of respondents are now opting for shoulder season travel. This emerging trend involves booking vacations between high and low seasons, offering travelers the advantage of more affordable trips, fewer crowds, and better weather. The once hidden gem of shoulder season travel has now become an increasingly popular choice for savvy travelers.
Traditionally, shoulder season travel primarily attracted adults without school-aged children. However, Intrepid Travel’s CEO, James Thornton, notes that parents are now increasingly willing to take their children out of school to experience travel. Moreover, this trend is not limited to a few destinations but is causing a significant shift in established seasonal travel patterns in various locations, such as Thailand, the Caribbean, and Mexico. The Tourism Authority of Thailand’s governor, Thapanee Kiatphaibool, highlights this change, stating that Thailand no longer has a distinct low season.
As more travelers opt for shoulder season trips, the demarcation between high and low seasons begins to blur. While this benefits travelers in terms of better weather and fewer crowds, it also impacts pricing. Despite being considered the off-peak season, the demand for travel remains high throughout the year, leading to an increase in prices. James Thornton explains that this surge in demand during the previously low seasons is eliminating the cost-saving advantage that shoulder season travel once offered.
In order to identify destinations where cost-saving opportunities still exist, CNBC Travel conducted an analysis of hotel rates in five popular locations: Kyoto, the Maldives, Italy, Dubai, and New York City. By comparing entry-level room prices for two travelers during peak and shoulder seasons, inclusive of taxes, CNBC Travel made several interesting findings.
Kyoto, Japan: The Blossoming of Sakura
Kyoto’s popular Sakura season, which coincides with late March to early April, showcases the blooming of cherry blossom trees and attracts enormous crowds of travelers. This peak season leads to significant price hikes in not only hotel rates but also various services like guides, trains, and museum tickets. However, CNBC Travel’s analysis reveals that the price disparity is not limited to Japan. Traveling during peak seasons often incurs significant additional costs across multiple aspects of a trip.
The Maldives: Beyond the Beaches
In the Maldives, the distinction between seasons is based on rainfall rather than temperature. The northeast monsoon season, known as the “dry” season, lasts from January to March, while the southwest monsoon, or “wet” season, extends from mid-May to November. Combining these weather patterns with year-end holidays, the peak season in the Maldives spans from December to April. However, November and April are regarded as “shoulder” months. CNBC’s analysis reveals that travelers can save hundreds or even thousands of dollars in hotel charges alone by visiting the Maldives just before the rainy season begins.
Italy: Seeking the Sweet Spots
Italy’s peak season has extended into May and September due to its popularity with tourists. As a result, the country’s shoulder season has become shorter and more challenging to identify. According to Italy Explained, spring, particularly March and April, is one of the last true shoulder seasons in Italy. However, price breaks can also be found in late October and November. For instance, Rome’s River Palace Hotel offers lower rates for certain periods, such as June, with special advance booking promotions. Understanding the specific characteristics of a destination and its peak and shoulder seasons can assist in finding the best cost-saving opportunities.
Dubai: Beating the Heat
Dubai’s international arrivals are at their lowest from June to August, coinciding with scorching summer temperatures. Similar to many destinations in the Northern Hemisphere, Dubai’s shoulder season bookends the summer season, lasting from April to May and September to October. While room rates in Dubai do not significantly vary between peak and shoulder season, summers tend to be cheaper, and May rates are often less expensive than those in April. However, unique venues like Accor’s Queen Elizabeth 2 ship follow a more seasonal pattern, with rates dropping in March, reaching their lowest during the summer, and rising again in October.
New York City: A Tale of Two Peaks
New York City experiences two peak seasons: June to August and the period between Thanksgiving and the New Year. Surprisingly, New York City is the only destination in CNBC’s analysis where shoulder season rates exceed peak season prices. Nevertheless, this phenomenon is limited to the summer months. During the year-end festivities when visitors flock to the city for ice skating at Rockefeller Center and shopping on 5th Avenue, rates are considerably higher than other times of the year. Thus, travelers seeking cost-saving alternatives should avoid New York City during the peak summer months.
Finding the Sweet Spot
The rise of shoulder season travel offers an excellent opportunity for travelers to explore remarkable destinations while saving money. By analyzing peak and shoulder season prices across various destinations, it becomes clear that the traditional delineation between high and low seasons is evolving. Widespread demand for travel throughout the year is leading to an increase in prices even during off-peak periods. Nevertheless, informed travelers who understand the nuances of each destination’s seasons can still identify cost-saving sweet spots. Planning a trip during the shoulder season not only provides financial advantages but also enhances the overall travel experience by avoiding excessive crowds and unfavorable weather conditions. As the travel industry continues to transform, embracing shoulder season travel proves to be a strategic approach for smart and budget-conscious travelers.
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