IATA AGM 2026: Africa and the Middle East Stand at Aviation’s Most Difficult Frontier | News
Africa and the Middle East occupy a peculiar place in global aviation. One is home to some of the world’s most powerful connecting hubs, the other remains one of the least connected regions on earth. Yet at this year’s IATA Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the two were presented less as separate stories than as adjoining chapters in the same strategic question: where will aviation’s next phase of growth come from, and what will it take to unlock it?
IATA’s Africa and Middle East briefing, led by Kamil Alawadhi, Regional Vice-President for Africa and Middle East, framed the region as central to global aviation but operating in unusually difficult conditions. The Middle East was described as a story of resilience, Africa as one of untapped potential and opportunity. That distinction matters. The Middle East has already shown what aviation can achieve when governments, infrastructure and airlines align behind a long-term vision. Africa, by contrast, still has to overcome the policy, cost and safety barriers that prevent aviation from playing its full economic role.
The long-term growth forecasts are compelling. Under IATA’s mid-growth scenario, Africa is projected to grow at 3.6% annually between 2024 and 2050, while the Middle East is forecast at 3.1%. Both outpace many mature markets and underline a wider shift in aviation’s centre of gravity. Air transport growth is increasingly concentrated in regions where demographics, urbanisation and economic development still have decades to run.
But growth forecasts are easy to admire and difficult to deliver. The Middle East war has shown how exposed the region remains to geopolitical shocks. IATA said ten regional airspaces were affected, leading to rerouting and rescheduling, while jet fuel peaked at $218 a barrel and crack spreads reached record highs. Demand shifted away from Middle East hubs and airlines cut capacity to reflect higher costs and weaker demand. It was a reminder that aviation is one of the first industries to feel geopolitical disruption and one of the quickest to reveal its economic cost.
The Middle East’s advantage is that it has spent decades building resilience into its aviation model. Its airlines, airports and regulators have become used to operating in a region where airspace, energy prices and passenger flows can change quickly. That does not make disruption painless, but it does mean the region has developed the institutional muscle to adapt. In aviation terms, resilience is increasingly a competitive advantage.
Africa’s problem is different. The continent is rich in long-term demand but poor in aviation affordability. According to IATA, African airlines operate in the least profitable region globally, with the highest unit costs, double the industry average. Fleets are older, fuel is 17% above the global average, taxes and charges are 15% higher, and corporate tax rates are the highest in the world. These are structural disadvantages, not passing headwinds.
The most striking figure is blocked funds. Airlines currently have $740 million trapped across Africa and the Middle East, representing 98% of the global total. Algeria, Lebanon, Mozambique, Eritrea, Zimbabwe and Angola account for some of the largest sums. For passengers, this may sound like an accounting issue. For airlines, it is a network planning issue. If revenues cannot be repatriated, capacity becomes harder to justify, new routes become riskier and connectivity suffers.
That is why IATA’s call to governments was unusually practical. It urged states to recognise aviation as an economic enabler, improve safety oversight, implement ICAO standards, reduce taxes and charges, ensure cost-efficient infrastructure and prioritise aviation in access to foreign exchange. None of this is glamorous, but it is precisely the sort of policy plumbing that determines whether aviation markets grow or stagnate.
Safety remains the foundation. IATA identified improving safety and making aviation more affordable as Africa’s two central priorities, and the logic is clear. Without stronger safety oversight and consistent implementation of global standards, growth cannot be sustainable. Without lower costs, growth cannot become inclusive. Aviation in Africa cannot be treated as a luxury sector to tax. It is economic infrastructure.
For the Middle East, the next agenda is more about maturity than market creation. IATA pointed to capacity-building, regulatory harmonisation and alignment with global standards as key priorities. It also warned that consumer protection rules must be balanced, proportionate and consistent with industry principles. As governments across the world become more active in passenger rights, airlines are pushing back against fragmented rules that add cost and complexity without necessarily improving outcomes.
The broader story is that Africa and the Middle East are entering different but connected phases of development. The Middle East has built world-class aviation platforms and now needs to preserve resilience, regulatory consistency and operational efficiency in a more volatile world. Africa has the demographics and demand, but needs policy reform, affordability and safety improvement to turn potential into traffic.
For global aviation, the opportunity is significant. If Africa can lower the cost of flying, improve safety oversight and unlock trapped revenues, it could become one of the industry’s defining growth stories. If the Middle East continues to adapt through instability while deepening regulatory harmonisation, it will remain one of the world’s most important connecting regions. The next chapter of aviation may be shaped less by whether demand exists, and more by whether governments choose to let it fly.
