Aviation’s Decarbonization Bet Is Looking Shakier Than Ever

This was supposed to be SAF’s moment — when sustainable aviation fuel could shield airlines from rising jet-fuel costs.

But the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has delivered a brutal reminder of just how exposed the airline industry remains to fossil fuel. Jet fuel more than doubled in cost in less than a month, surpassing even the peak during the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, according to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor. Diversified, domestically produced fuel supply — less dependent on volatile Gulf exports — is precisely the hedge that decarbonization advocates have long promised SAF could provide.

So why aren’t airlines switching? Because the supply doesn’t exist. SAF production is still just 0.7% of aviation’s total fuel needs.